Bill Postmus.net

With the passage of Michigan’s Republican-crafted redistricting law, recently signed off on by Gov. Rick Snyder, Rep. John Conyers’s seat is officially up for grabs after nearly 50 years — and local Democratic district officials are not pleased.

A legal challenge against the new redistricting law from Michigan Democrats is likely, and the 14th Congressional District Democratic Organization has issued a statement opposing the law.

“Under the new redistricting law, the vast majority of current 14th District members will no longer be a part of the new 14th Congressional District. The 14th District contends that all alternative maps were disregarded in the state legislative process and this new flawed redistricting plan should be subject to judicial review,” the statement read.

Rick Blocker, 14th District chairman, said, “We stand with the people in opposing the map signed into law by Gov. [Rick] Snyder. Instead of bringing voters together, this map divides up long-standing districts, communities and groups. It is an obvious gerrymander, and may be unlawful. We will continue to work and organize to protect the rights and interests of the voters of the 14th District.”

Conyers, ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, has represented the 14th Congressional District since 1964, the second-longest House tenure behind Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.), and plans to run for a 25th term.

The 14th District currently includes the west side of Detroit, Dearborn and several smaller communities southwest of Detroit.

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Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, two House Democrats who have served alongside each other in neighboring Southern California districts for more than a decade, have long maintained a healthy rivalry.

But the knives might soon come out.

Last week, an independent California redistricting panel released a draft congressional map that pairs the two veteran Democrats in the same San Fernando Valley-based seat, raising the prospect that they will face off in an incumbent vs. incumbent clash.

The fight isn’t inevitable. The redistricting commission will make adjustments on the state’s new congressional lines before releasing a final draft in August. But those familiar with the panel’s workings say it’s unclear how extensive the changes will be.

Under the tentative new map, Berman and Sherman could either go head to head or face unappealing alternatives. Berman could run in a proposed district nearby with a heavily Latino population, but he would be vulnerable to a prospective challenge from an ambitious Hispanic candidate. Sherman could run in a Ventura County district that encompasses territory he’s never represented before.

Both say they would like to run for the district they are drawn into — and that has Democratic officials very worried. Under California’s new jungle primary system, in which the top two candidates in a primary advance to the general election, a Berman vs. Sherman showdown would most likely last two painful rounds.

“The question they will have to ask each other is: Do they want to have a very expensive primary election and a very expensive general election?” said Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman, a veteran congressman whose current Los Angeles-area district borders those of Berman and Sherman. “I hope it doesn’t come to that.”

The Berman-Sherman rivalry is part of Southern California political lore. While they maintain an aura of respect and collegiality — both say they are “friends” — there are long-simmering tensions, too.

“They don’t take shots at each other. They respect each other,” said Eric Bauman, the California Democratic Party vice chairman who has emceed party functions that the two lawmakers have attended together. “Does that mean there isn’t some rivalry? Of course it doesn’t.”

California political watchers — many of whom request anonymity in order to discuss the relationship candidly — trace the rivalry to the last round of redistricting, when Sherman publicly accused Berman and his brother, Democratic consultant Michael Berman, of stuffing Latino voters into his district and imperiling his hold on the seat. “Howard Berman stabbed me in the back,” Sherman said at the time, according to the Los Angeles Times.

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by Sean J. Miller
06/13/11

Texas Republicans are expected to ram through a redistricting map that could eliminate the district of one of state’s remaining white Democrats, and he says it all part of the GOP plan.

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D), who represents Austin, would see his liberal-leaning constituency sliced into five other districts under the redistricting proposal making its way through the special session of the state legislature. Doggett says the intention of the GOP majority in the Legislature was to ensure that no Anglo Democrats are coming from Texas.

That’s just part of the plan, the nine-term Democrat said of the map drawn for the state’s new 36-seat delegation.

Texas picked up four seats in the reapportionment after 2010′s census. Republicans currently hold a 23-9 edge in the state’s House delegation.

The Republican Party is determined to make the Democratic Party a party of minorities, that is what this is about, as well, Doggett told The Hill. You don’t come in and deny the capital city an opportunity to have a district that reflects the capital city.

The Texas redistricting plan is the latest blow in a series of defeats for White Southern Democrats. In 2010, the GOP won 22 House seats in the states that make up the Old Confederacy, including Texas. Those loses came, in part, because white voters preferred Republican candidates by almost two-to-one in the midterms. Redistricting could make it harder for the region’s remaining white Democratic House members to survive the next election.

Doggett is expected to face the dilemma of running in the newly Republican-leaning 25th District, where his home is, or moving to run in the newly created 35th District that runs from the southern suburbs of Austin to San Antonio.

Rep. Gene Green, Texas’s only other white Democrat serving in the House, saw his Houston-area district largely unchanged by the GOP’s redistricting plan.

Doggett said he’s waiting to see the final map, which will be determined after court challenges, but didn’t rule out running in the 35th District.

I’ve already been down to San Antonio to have a series of meetings with people there to be prepared if that’s what the court ultimately says is the form of the district, he said.

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A bipartisan panel has a redistricting plan that would upend California’s 53-member congressional delegation, bringing to an end an era of almost unparalleled stability and ushering in the potential for widespread turnover.

Nothing is set in stone. California’s new draft map is just that – a draft. Before the final version comes out in August, the redistricting commission is expected to make some changes. But in many cases, the new districts will look similar – if not identical – to what’s been presented.

Here’s POLITICO’s guide to California’s new congressional landscape.

Democrats

Rep. Jerry McNerney

McNerney, who’s long been at the top of Republican target lists, won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in November in a GOP-leaning, Stockton-area seat. But now he finds himself with two potential new homes – both of which offer him far safer footing. McNerney can move to a newly crafted and vacant San Joaquin County-based district that solidly favors Democrats. Or, should 79-year-old Rep. Pete Stark retire, he can run in an even more favorable Northern California district. Either way, McNerney moves way down the endangered species list.

Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard

Roybal-Allard, the first Mexican-American woman elected to Congress, is in a tough spot. She’s unlikely to run against Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra in an East Los Angeles-area district where Becerra would be expected to perform strongly, or in a nearby Compton-based seat that would favor an African American. She could benefit if 74-year old Democratic Rep. Grace Napolitano retires or Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters vacates her seat – both of which would open up a Latino majority district for her to run in.

Rep. Lois Capps

Democratic Rep. Lois Capps has long skated to relatively easy reelection bids. But now she’ll find herself in a less Democratic-friendly, Southern California-based district and already has a formidable foe in former GOP Lt Gov. Abel Maldonado.

Rep. Laura Richardson

Richardson, who’s been drawn into the same district as fellow Democratic Rep. Linda Sanchez, could look to run in a newly created Compton-based seat. But no matter where Richardson runs, she’s likely to come under attack from a potential Democratic foe over ethical run-ins surrounding her personal finances.

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By Alex Isenstadt | 6/10/11 @ 1:22 PM EST

A redistricting panel has demolished California’s exquisitely gerrymandered congressional map, ushering in the prospect of a massive turnover in the state’s delegation and imperiling the careers of some of Capitol Hill’s most powerful pols.

The Citizens Redistricting Commission, a bipartisan 14-member group composed largely of political neophytes, unveiled the first draft of the state’s congressional blueprint Friday, ending an era of unparalleled stability for a 53-member delegation that has seen remarkably little turnover over the last decade.

The plan marks a dramatic transformation in the state’s congressional landscape, and will create electoral troubles for members of both parties. GOP Rep. Gary Miller, a veteran congressmen from Orange County, is drawn into a Democratic-leaning district; while 77-year-old Republican Rep. Elton Gallegly finds himself in the same seat as Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon. Both appear to have limited political options.

Prominent lawmakers did not escape unscathed. GOP Rep. David Dreier, who chairs the House Rules Committee, is drawn into a Democratic-leaning seat. Democratic Rep. Howard Berman, the former chair of the House Foreign Services Committee, is drawn into the same district as fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, who has more than $3 million in the bank.

In some cases, members who have skated to easy reelection bids for years will find themselves in newly competitive districts. GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, a nine-term congressman who is facing a rematch against Democratic physician Ami Berra, is placed in an only mildly Republican-leaning seat in the Sacramento area. Democratic Rep. Lois Capps, facing a challenge from former GOP Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, now finds herself in an only slightly Democratic-leaning district.

The draft appears to boost Democrats overall, with strategists from both sides estimating that the party could pick up a handful of seats statewide. With line-drawers unraveling a decade-long gerrymander, the new map places several southern California-area Republicans in tenuous political positions while apparently establishing safe seats for every Bay Area Democrat.

“I would say there [will be] fewer Republicans in California if the map were to hold,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican consultant in the state, adding that Democrats could gain as many as a half-dozen seats.

Jim Ross, a Bay Area-based Democratic consultant, said the shift simply reflects the state’s deep-blue tinge.

“The demographics of California benefits Democrats, and in politics demographics are destiny,” said Ross, who noted that Democrats currently control every statewide office.

The commission, proposed by former GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2009 and approved by voters in a ballot measure last year, designed the map with an eye toward ending the incumbent protection-oriented mindset that defined previous rounds off redistricting in the state. One of the biggest advantages to the new process, the commission wrote in a Thursday press release, is that “Districts are drawn without regard to political incumbents and partisan considerations.”

In unveiling the map on Friday, commission leaders said they expected some alterations to be made before the final version of the map is released in mid-August. The commission, which has been meeting since this spring, will solicit public input over the next two months before releasing the final draft.

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June 7, 2011 2:07 p.m. – Updated: 2:09 p.m.

BOISE – When Coeur d’Alene contractor and former state lawmaker Dean Haagenson served on Idaho’s redistricting commission a decade ago, he got telephone threats, threats against his business and more.

“I don’t always hew to the party line – I try to do what’s reasonable,” Haagenson said Tuesday. “Some people respect that. Some don’t.”

As Idaho’s new redistricting commission started work Tuesday on its task of drawing new legislative and congressional district lines over the next 90 days, it called in two members of the last redistricting commission for advice.

Haagenson’s top advice: “Remember who you’re responsible to – you’re responsible to the citizens of Idaho. You’re not responsible to your respective political parties.”

Haagenson, a Republican, said some in his party were angered last time around that he worked with Democratic commissioner Ray Givens of Coeur d’Alene to develop compromise plans. “The fact that I’d sat down with him at his computer and toyed with district lines really offended them,” Haagenson recalled.

But that’s how Idaho’s bipartisan redistricting commission works – with three Democrats and three Republicans, it’ll take at least one person willing to cross party lines for any plan to pass.

Lou Esposito, a Boise political consultant and a GOP member of this year’s redistricting commission, said, “We’re coming into this with an open mind. We’re going to be looking at all the public input. We’re going to be approaching this from a standpoint that best serves the citizens and voters of Idaho.”

He added, “We’re also going to be taking the Republican view on all this. But the reality is the numbers are the numbers. From our point of view, we’re blessed with those numbers.”

Republicans already control every statewide elected office in the state, plus more than 80 percent of the seats in the Legislature. Population trends since the last census aren’t considered likely to change that – they could even increase it.

Former Democratic Commissioner Tom Stuart of Boise told the new commissioners that no plan developed solely by one party or the other will pass. “I just don’t think that’s reasonable – that certainly didn’t happen last time,” he said. “I think ultimately the plan that will be approved is one you develop jointly and one that you develop collaboratively.”

Idaho’s current legislative districts will “have to be substantially changed” this year, Boise State University political scientist Gary Moncrief told the newly sworn-in commissioners on Tuesday morning. That’s because the ideal district size, should Idaho stick with 35 legislative districts, is now 44,788. That’s about 8,000 more people than the ideal legislative district size 10 years ago. But while some areas have grown substantially in population, others haven’t grown much or have even shrunk.

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